Pandemic Response CoLab is in read-only mode.
Learn more at https://www.pandemicresponsecolab.org/page/readonly.
Skip navigation
Share via:

Summary

Epidemiological models for COVID-19 have been inaccurate.


Description

Description

Epidemiological models for COVID-19 have been inaccurate. Some possible reasons include:

  • Lack of high stakes out of sample feedback, allowing mediocre approaches to survive in academia for too long. 
  • Limited transfer of techniques from applied mathematics, such as the use of mathematical techniques for addressing the impact of  variation (mathematical homogenization, for example) or term structure modeling (for example from interest rate modeling)
  • Failure to adopt open source best practices and reproducible research. 
  • Mostly individual modeling failing to take advantage of ways of tapping in to collective intelligence in the sourcing of accurate predictions. 

The unmet need is a platform for transparent, efficient, collective prediction of disease spread. Contributions should be judged fairly and statistically (out of sample) and not by softer measures such as the reputations of those involved. 

 


1comment
Share conversation: Share via:

Krishnendu Dasgupta

Jul 11, 2020
04:51

Member


1 |
Share via:

This is a great solution. There is indeed a need of an epidemiological model that can track the disease spread and calculate  the right predictions.

ADD YOUR COMMENT
You must be logged into your account to post a comment.
Click on the box